The Strait of Hormuz and SDG 8: Implications of Energy Supply Disruptions for Economic Growth and Employment Opportunities in Iraq

12/09/2026   Share :        
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Prof. Dr. Haider Ali Al-Dulaimi College of Administrative Sciences – Al-Mustaqbal University The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important maritime passages in the global economy due to its pivotal role in the movement of oil and gas trade between the Gulf region and global markets. Therefore, any disruption to navigation through the Strait is not confined to its immediate geographical area; rather, its effects extend to energy prices, transportation and insurance costs, supply chains, and inflation levels, ultimately affecting economic growth rates and employment opportunities in many countries, particularly economies that depend heavily on oil exports. In this context, the implications of a crisis in the Strait of Hormuz are particularly significant for Iraq, whose economy is closely linked to the oil sector in terms of public revenues, foreign currency earnings, and the financing of government expenditure. The Strait of Hormuz crisis therefore directly intersects with Sustainable Development Goal 8 (SDG 8), which calls for promoting sustained and inclusive economic growth, decent work, higher productivity, and economic diversification. Oil: Between Revenue Opportunities and the Risks of Dependence Higher oil prices resulting from disruptions to energy supplies may appear to offer an opportunity for oil-exporting countries, including Iraq, as rising global prices can generate additional oil revenues. However, this potential benefit does not necessarily translate into sustainable economic growth. Iraq faces the issue from more than one perspective. While higher oil prices may increase government revenues, they can simultaneously lead to higher global prices for energy, transportation, goods, and services, thereby increasing import and production costs within the Iraqi economy. Prolonged disruption to maritime traffic may also raise shipping and insurance costs and increase uncertainty for investors. This creates an important economic paradox: Iraq may benefit financially from higher oil prices while simultaneously bearing broader economic costs resulting from rising commodity and energy prices and disruptions to international trade. Economic Growth in the Face of External Shocks SDG 8 emphasizes the need to build economies capable of achieving sustainable growth rather than relying solely on temporary conditions or increases in the price of a single commodity. In Iraq’s case, a crisis in the Strait of Hormuz clearly demonstrates the importance of this issue. The greater the economy’s dependence on oil, the more closely economic growth becomes linked to geopolitical developments and fluctuations in global prices. Consequently, any disruption to oil export routes or the import of goods can become a source of pressure on both the public budget and overall economic activity. Achieving SDG 8 therefore requires moving beyond a concept of growth based primarily on oil revenues toward a broader model founded on diversified sources of growth, including industry, agriculture, services, tourism, investment, technology, and the digital economy. The Labor Market and the Challenge of External Shocks The effects of an energy crisis are not limited to the public budget and gross domestic product; they can also extend to the labor market. Rising production costs may lead some businesses to reduce their activities or postpone investment and expansion plans, thereby limiting their ability to create new jobs. Conversely, directing a portion of any additional revenues generated by higher oil prices toward productive projects, infrastructure, and renewable energy initiatives could transform the crisis into an opportunity to create new jobs and stimulate non-oil economic sectors. This is directly aligned with the essence of SDG 8, which measures economic success not merely by the size of output but also by the quality of employment opportunities, productivity, and the capacity to achieve inclusive and sustainable growth. Iraq and the Need for a More Resilient Economy A crisis in the Strait of Hormuz highlights an important reality for the Iraqi economy: economic security cannot be based solely on the abundance of natural resources. It requires a diversified economy capable of withstanding external shocks. From this perspective, any additional oil revenues resulting from higher global prices should not simply lead to temporary increases in operating expenditure. Instead, they can be directed toward investment in infrastructure, education and vocational training, industry, modern agriculture, logistics, technology, and renewable energy. Developing ports, transportation networks, roads, and domestic supply chains can also strengthen the Iraqi economy’s ability to respond to disruptions in global trade while reducing the impact of higher transportation and import costs. From the Implications of the Crisis to Opportunities for Reform Despite its economic risks, a crisis in the Strait of Hormuz can provide an opportunity to reconsider Iraq’s economic growth model. Crises often reveal structural weaknesses that may be less visible under normal conditions and encourage countries to seek more sustainable alternatives. For Iraq, one of the most important lessons is the need to move beyond viewing oil merely as a source of revenue and instead regard it as a financial resource that can be utilized to build a more diversified economy capable of creating greater economic value and employment opportunities. Achieving SDG 8 requires an Iraqi economy that is not excessively vulnerable to fluctuations in oil prices or geopolitical crises, but rather one that possesses a diversified productive base, an effective private sector, a more dynamic labor market, and investments capable of generating employment and productive activity. The Strait of Hormuz crisis demonstrates the highly interconnected nature of the global economy and how disruptions to a strategic trade route can rapidly affect prices, production, investment, and employment in countries far beyond the immediate geographical area of the crisis. For Iraq, the real challenge lies not only in managing the immediate consequences of such a crisis but also in transforming it into an incentive to rebuild a more diversified and resilient economic model. Any increase in oil revenues, should it occur, should not be regarded as an end in itself, but rather as an opportunity to finance economic transformation and investment in productive sectors. Ultimately, achieving Sustainable Development Goal 8 in Iraq requires building an economy capable of transforming its oil resources into sustainable growth, productive employment opportunities, a strong private sector, and a diversified economy that is less vulnerable to external shocks. This is the path through which the consequences of geopolitical crises, including those associated with the Strait of Hormuz, can be transformed from a source of economic threat into a catalyst for reform and economic diversification.