Macroeconomic variables, including inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, gross domestic product (GDP), consumer prices, and other indicators such as poverty and unemployment rates, serve as a mirror reflecting the three principal policy frameworks of the state: fiscal policy, economic policy, and monetary policy. Together, these policies determine a country’s overall macroeconomic performance through their integration and consistency, creating the conditions necessary for achieving sustainable economic growth and enabling countries to advance to higher levels of economic development, whether among emerging or developed economies.
The exchange rate is one of the most prominent variables shared by monetary and economic policy. It plays a significant role in achieving meaningful economic growth by increasing market share and enhancing competitiveness, particularly in countries with export-oriented industrial and productive capacities. Countries such as China, as well as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, seek to adopt balanced monetary policies through competitive exchange rates against the U.S. dollar, maintaining their currencies at lower values relative to the dollar. This approach enables them to market their exports internationally at competitive prices, while taking product quality into account. Such a strategy has helped these countries build strong, diversified, and multi-sectoral economies capable of generating substantial financial revenues, which can be used to finance their national budgets on a stable basis, supported by effective hedging instruments.
By contrast, countries with limited export capacity and relatively modest productive capabilities, such as Kuwait and Oman, pursue exchange rate policies that maintain their currencies at higher values relative to the U.S. dollar. This approach provides their citizens with greater purchasing power, which can stimulate effective aggregate demand. Aggregate demand is an important economic variable that contributes to expanding the productive base, creating additional employment opportunities, and potentially generating government tax revenues through increased economic activity.
Iraq, however, is almost entirely a rentier economy, characterized by struggling fiscal, economic, and monetary policies and unstable macroeconomic indicators. The most prominent of these indicators are inflation, unemployment, and poverty, all of which have reached elevated levels, signaling serious economic challenges.
Against this backdrop, Iraq’s recent decision to devalue its local currency against the U.S. dollar has contributed to a wave of stagflation, characterized by economic stagnation and rising prices. This situation has been driven by a decline in aggregate demand resulting from the sharp increase in prices, alongside higher tax rates. These developments have contributed to noticeable levels of unemployment as a consequence of the economic slowdown, negatively affecting most of Iraq’s macroeconomic indicators.
Accordingly, policymakers must reassess the consequences of this decision and take appropriate measures to address its effects in order to mitigate its social impact on Iraqi society and families, as well as its broader implications for the country’s fiscal, economic, and monetary conditions. Furthermore, it is essential to explore suitable alternatives and develop effective hedging mechanisms to help address the chronic budget deficit facing Iraq.