The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is described as the driest in the world, and climate change adds a new layer of pressure to this reality. The problem is no longer just low rainfall, but rising temperatures, greater year-to-year variability, and growing demand, all of which interact with long-standing institutional fragility. The question of the region’s water future therefore goes beyond how much is available today to how well countries can adapt tomorrow. The picture begins with the baseline. In a report on the economics of water scarcity, the World Bank estimated that annual per capita water availability will fall below the absolute scarcity threshold of 500 cubic meters before the end of this decade, and that by 2050 the region will need an additional 25 billion cubic meters per year, a quantity equivalent to building 65 desalination plants the size of Saudi Arabia’s Ras Al-Khair plant. Reports indicate that about 83% of the region’s population currently lives under extremely high water stress, and this share may approach 100% by 2050. These figures would materialize even without climate change, but the climate makes them worse. guardian (https://guardian.ng/?p=2070523) newsbytesapp (https://www.newsbytesapp.com/news/world/iran-war-s-silent-casualty-desalination-plants-face-strikes/story) Climate signals, however, vary geographically. A regional climate study using downscaled models found that annual rainfall decreases in the Mediterranean basin, with the decline extending eastward to Iran in several months, while it increases around the Arabian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman, and the east of the Arabian Peninsula. It also found that warming of 2 degrees could be reached by 2050 under a high-emissions scenario, and 4 to 5 degrees near the end of the century. This variation means the region does not face a single fate: cities such as Tehran appear to be among the hardest hit, while other areas may see a relative increase in rainfall. aminer (https://aminer.org/pub/65e4b5e613fb2c6cf697a585/projected-precipitation-and-temperature-changes-in-the-middle-east-west-asia-using) The impact of heat is no less significant than that of rainfall. A study in Nature Climate Change described the region as a climate hotspot where summers are warming faster than in other regions, and warned that heat waves of 56°C could be possible in the second half of the century if serious climate action is absent, and that half the region’s population, around 600 million people, could face super-extreme heat waves every year by 2100. Heat has a direct effect on water: it increases evaporation, irrigation requirements, and urban consumption, and adds to the energy burden of desalinating and pumping water. 56°C heat waves possible in Middle East, North Africa this century +2 (https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/news/article/56-c-heat-waves-possible-in-middle-east-north-africa-this-century) Recent years show how these pressures converge. Iran is going through its sixth consecutive year of drought; its president has warned of water rationing in Tehran and the possibility of evacuating the city, and Lake Urmia has largely dried up. Reports said that Tehran’s main reservoirs were operating at only about 8–9% of their capacity. In Syria, the United Nations described the 2006–2011 drought as the worst long-term drought and the most severe wave of crop failures since agriculture began in the Fertile Crescent. Yet the picture is not one of steady decline: in January 2026, Morocco announced the end of a seven-year drought after heavy winter rains. This confirms that sharp swings between years of scarcity and years of abundance are the most prominent face of climate change in the region. Is Iran running out of water? Inside the nation’s unprecedented drought +3 (https://www.theweek.in/news/middle-east/2025/12/02/is-iran-running-out-of-water-inside-the-nation-s-unprecedented-drought.html) Geopolitics further complicates the scene, as about sixty percent of the region’s water crosses international borders, making any shortage or upstream project a shared issue. Reports also indicate that ongoing armed conflicts aggravate an already acute water crisis, and that rivers and dams have become instruments of political influence. These issues require continuous scrutiny because they change quickly and are disputed among the parties. openknowledge.worldbank.org +2 (https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/entities/publication/2632c581-6dea-58a4-b7b7-10bfd0d2bc65/full) Local studies complement this regional picture. In the Middle Euphrates basin in Iraq, climate modeling suggested longer and more severe droughts around mid-century, and the SPEI index, which captures the effect of heat, showed more severe drought than the rainfall index alone. This is consistent with the general regional trend: heat amplifies the impact of low rainfall. As for the response, several countries have turned to non-conventional sources. The region accounts for about 46% of global desalination capacity, and Saudi Arabia operates the world’s largest desalination capacity, at more than 11 million cubic meters per day, while the Gulf Cooperation Council states awarded water contracts exceeding 20 billion dollars in 2024. In reuse, Dubai aims for full reuse by 2030, and Saudi Arabia’s targets range between 70 and 100%. Renewable-energy-powered desalination plants have begun operating in Saudi Arabia, Morocco, and Jordan. public-pages-files-2025.frontiersin.org +4 (https://public-pages-files-2025.frontiersin.org/journals/water/articles/10.3389/frwa.2025.1672360/pdf) But these solutions are costly and limited by financial capacity. The World Bank noted that the cost of desalination and wastewater reuse is much higher than that of the dams and groundwater that countries relied on in the past, and warned that opportunities to expand storage capacity have stabilized, that groundwater is being depleted in ways that harm its quality, and that importing virtual water exposes countries to global market shocks. Experts therefore call for desalination to be complemented by reuse, demand management, and network efficiency, rather than replaced by them. Connecting Waterpeople +2 (https://smartwatermagazine.com/news/world-bank/water-scarcity-middle-east-and-north-africa-mena-requires-bold-actions-says-world) Institutions remain half of the equation. The World Bank recommended transferring part of water allocation decisions to representative local governments within a national strategy, granting water utilities greater independence to communicate with consumers about tariffs, and clear communication with the public about the reasons for decisions. A region where irrigation accounts for a high share of total withdrawals, historically estimated at around eighty percent, needs above all to manage agricultural demand. mideastenvironment.apps01.yorku.ca +2 (https://mideastenvironment.apps01.yorku.ca/?p=19920) Thus the equation of the Middle East’s water future takes shape from three elements: a hotter and more variable climate, societies with growing demand, and institutions in need of reform. No single technical solution is sufficient; what is required is a mix of new sources, higher efficiency, and cross-border cooperation, and before all that, readiness for longer droughts than the region has been accustomed to. Presented by: Eng. Zahraa Hussein Mohammed (Assistant Engineer) Sources: The World Bank, “The Economics of Water Scarcity in the Middle East and North Africa: Institutional Solutions”; Babaeian et al. (2024), Theoretical and Applied Climatology; the Nature Climate Change study on heat waves; Frontiers in Water (2025) on desalination; Oliver Wyman (2025) analysis of the water sector; press reports and research centers on the droughts in Iran, Syria, and Morocco (2025–2026).