The study of future droughts in river basins is one of the most important tools used by water resource planners, as it provides an advance assessment of potential climate risks before they occur. The Central Euphrates Basin in Iraq has received increasing attention in recent studies because of its location within a semi-arid climate zone, its high population density and agricultural activity, and its heavy reliance on a single river to meet its water demands. The study is based on data from five meteorological stations representing the region: Hillah, Karbala, Najaf, Diwaniyah, and Samawah, covering the period from 1991 to 2021. To compensate for the limited availability of ground-based measurements, satellite data were also used. Daily precipitation data were obtained from CHIRPS, while temperature data were sourced from NASA POWER. Comparison with ground-based station measurements showed good agreement, with precipitation correlation coefficients ranging from 0.83 to 0.97, depending on the station. These results support the use of satellite data for model calibration and validation. The modelling approach employs the LARS-WG stochastic weather generator, Version 6, which transforms outputs from global climate models into detailed local climate time series. The model was applied using five global climate models from CMIP5 under two emissions scenarios: the moderate-emissions scenario (RCP4.5) and the high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5). Kolmogorov–Smirnov tests demonstrated that the model simulates wet and dry periods during winter, autumn, and spring with good to excellent performance. However, its performance declines during summer because precipitation is almost entirely absent during this season. This limitation is expected and does not necessarily indicate a model deficiency. To characterize drought conditions, two indices were employed on a 12-month timescale for the period 2021–2060: the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), which relies solely on precipitation, and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), which also accounts for the effect of rising temperatures on water loss. Each drought event is characterized by three properties: duration, severity, and intensity. Duration refers to the period during which the index remains negative, severity is the cumulative sum of the index values over that period, and intensity is calculated by dividing severity by duration. The results revealed considerable variation among the meteorological stations. Najaf and Samawah recorded the longest drought durations according to SPI, whereas Hillah and Diwaniyah experienced the longest durations according to SPEI under the high-emissions scenario. Karbala recorded the shortest drought durations under both indices. The most severe events occurred in Diwaniyah between 2050 and 2052, where drought intensity reached approximately −2.97 on the SPEI scale, a value classified within the exceptional drought category. In Samawah, the longest drought event lasted approximately two and a half years, between 2050 and 2053. Najaf experienced its most severe drought between 2048 and 2050, Karbala between 2056 and 2058, and Hillah between 2040 and 2041. These findings indicate that the greatest drought risk is concentrated around the middle of the century, with individual drought events lasting approximately one to three years. In light of these findings, future drought events in central Iraq are expected to become longer and more severe. Accordingly, water resource planning should extend beyond seasonal solutions to include the development of strategic water storage, improvements in irrigation efficiency, the reuse of treated wastewater, and groundwater recharge. Nevertheless, these projections should be interpreted as indicators of possible future trends rather than definitive predictions, as they depend on climate models that may produce varying results and on estimates derived from satellite data. Thus, the study represents an early-warning tool that can help decision-makers develop effective adaptation strategies before a crisis occurs. Prepared by: Lecturer Zahraa Hussein Mohammed Source: Imad Habeeb Obead and Zahraa Hussein. Climate Change Projections in Euphrates River Watersheds in the Middle of Iraq. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 2024, Vol. 1374, 012046.